How This Scenario Was Created

This scenario is part of the AI Pathways project, an initiative of the Foresight Institute’s Existential Hope program. Rather than focusing on risks or speculative timelines, AI Pathways presents two vividly realized and contrasting visions of what a desirable AI-driven future might look like. 

The project brings together leading thinkers, including Vitalik Buterin, Glen Weyl, Anton Korinek, and Allison Duettmann, who contributed to crafting these narratives.

Videography by Petr Salaba (AI-generated).

Explore the AI Pathways Project

• d/acc 2035 – Imagines a decentralized, democratic, defensive model of technological progress. Emphasizes plural acceleration, privacy-first infrastructure, and community-governed resilience.
• Tool AI 2035 –  A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, often narrow in scope, AI systems that enhance human decision-making without striving for full autonomy or generality.

Both scenarios are part of AI Pathways (https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/) and invite reflection on the values and paths we choose in shaping AI’s role in our world.

Contributors to this scenario

The development of the d/acc report was led by Linda Petrini and Beatrice Erkers, grounded in expert interviews and iterative feedback from across domains. The scenario should not be seen as the official views of any individual contributor.

• Vitalik Buterin (Ethereum), 
• Glen Weyl (Microsoft Research, RadicalXchange), 
• Kevin Owocki (Gitcoin), 
• Andrew Trask (OpenMined, DeepMind), 
• Emilia Javorsky (Future of Life Institute), 
• Deger Turan (Metaculus), 
• Allison Duettmann (Foresight Institute), 
• Soham Sankaran (PopVax), 
• Christine Peterson (Foresight Institute), 
• Marcin Jakubowski (Open Source Ecology), 
• Naomi Brockwell (Ludlow Institute), 
• Molly Mackinlay (Protocol Labs), 
• Lou de Kerhuelvez (Nodes).

We’re deeply grateful to anyone who contributed their time and insights to this experiment.

Metaculus Forecasting integration

To engage a broader audience, we’ve launched a set of forecasting questions on Metaculus tied to key scenario milestones, along with a $5,000 Commenting Prize (https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/foresight-ai-pathways/) for the top contributors.

Context: Existential Hope Program

The term “Existential Hope” refers to the capacity to envision futures where humanity not only survives, but flourishes in ways we can currently only imagine, and to be able to better work towards those futures. It complements the better-known concept of existential risk.This project sits within the Foresight Institute‘s broader mission to drive long-term, future-positive technology, where imagination is both a tool and a catalyst for change.

Master Reference List

Core Scenario References

1. Critch, A., Dennis, M., & Russell, S. (2022). Cooperative and Uncooperative Institution Designs: Surprises and Problems in Open-Source Game Theory. arXiv:2208.07006. https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.07006
2. Duettmann, A. (2025). Multipolar AI is Underrated. LessWrong. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JjYu75q3hEMBgtvr8/multipolar-ai-is-underrated
3. Critch, A. (2024). My Motivation and Theory of Change for Working in AI Healthtech. Alignment Forum. https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Kobbt3nQgv3yn29pr/my-motivation-and-theory-of-change-for-working-in-ai
4. Trask, A., Bluemke, E., Collins, T., Garfinkel, B., Drexler, K. E., et al. (2020). Beyond Privacy Trade-offs with Structured Transparency. arXiv:2012.08347. https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.08347

Domain-Specific References

Governance

1. Bell, T. W. (n.d.). Ulex: An Open Source Legal System. GitHub repository. https://github.com/proftomwbell/Ulex
2. vTaiwan case study. (n.d.). CrowdLaw for Congress: vTaiwan—Process & Lessons. [Case Study]. https://congress.crowd.law/files/vtaiwan-case-study.pdf
    

Science

3. Viganola, D., et al. (2021). Using Prediction Markets to Predict the Outcomes in Social Science. PNAS/Open. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8278038/ 

Healthcare

4. Rieke, N., et al. (2020). The Future of Digital Health with Federated Learning. NPJ Digital Medicine. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41746-020-00323-1
5. Critch, A. (2024). My Motivation and Theory of Change for Working in AI Healthtech. Alignment Forum. https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Kobbt3nQgv3yn29pr/my-motivation-and-theory-of-change-for-working-in-ai

Law & Justice

6. Kleros case—Mexico. (2022). Blockchain Arbitration: Roadmap to Recognition and Enforcement (Mexico case). Wolters Kluwer Arbitration Blog. https://legalblogs.wolterskluwer.com/arbitration-blog/arbitration-tech-toolbox-is-a-mexican-court-decision-the-first-stone-to-bridging-the-blockchain-arbitral-order-with-national-legal-orders/ 
7. Jus Mundi Dossier. (2020–2021). Mexican Company X v. Mexican Company Y (Kleros referral & enforcement docs). https://jusmundi.com/en/document/other/es-mexican-company-x-v-mexican-company-y-orden-procesal-de-arbitraje-1-2020-para-remision-a-kleros-tuesday-3rd-november-2020 

Infrastructure / Climate & Energy

8. Raman, G., et al. (2024). The Social Factors Shaping Community Microgrid Operation. Nature Communications. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50736-9
9. U.S. DOE/NREL (2025). MIRACL: Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad—Final Report. https://www.nrel.gov/wind/miracl-report 

Finance

Weyl, E. G., & Zhang, Y. (2021). Quadratic Funding: A Primer. [Working Paper].

Explainers

d/acc

d/acc stands for decentralized, democratic, differential, defensive acceleration. The term builds on “accelerationist” ideas but proposes a distinct direction: accelerating technologies that promote resilience, distribution, and pluralism, rather than centralization or control. The concept was outlined by Vitalik Buterin in his 2023 essay My Techno-Optimism, as an alternative to both slow-down narratives and uncritical techno-acceleration.

Federated Research Networks

Federated research networks are decentralized systems of collaboration where data, compute, or models are shared across institutions without centralizing control. Examples include federated learning systems in AI, or distributed scientific consortia. These networks aim to preserve privacy, local autonomy, and robustness while enabling large-scale coordination.

AI Fiduciaries

AI fiduciaries are entities, human or institutional, responsible for ensuring that AI systems act in the best interest of a designated individual or group. The term borrows from legal fiduciary duties in finance or law, and has been proposed as a governance framework for aligning AI behavior with user values, rights, and wellbeing.

Forkable Codebases 

This concept draws an analogy between software version control and institutional design. A “forkable” governance framework is one where laws, contracts, or protocols can be cloned, modified, and redeployed, just like open-source codebases. This enables institutional experimentation, adaptability, and transparency across jurisdictions or communities.

Jurisdictional Routers

Jurisdictional routers are conceptual or technical tools that allow individuals or organizations to choose between different legal, governance, or digital frameworks, often within networked or decentralized systems. The idea reflects growing interest in “choice of governance” in digital societies and is influenced by network states, e-residency, and virtual jurisdictions.

DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization)

A DAO is a governance structure run by smart contracts on a blockchain, allowing decentralized coordination among participants. Members typically vote using tokens, and rules are enforced transparently via code. DAOs are used for collective asset management, project funding, and protocol governance without centralized intermediaries.

“TradFi-DeFi”

This hybrid term refers to the emerging intersection between Traditional Finance (TradFi) institutions, such as banks or asset managers—and Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols built on blockchain. It includes initiatives like tokenized assets, compliance-layer DeFi, and institutional experimentation with on-chain infrastructure.

Jurisdictional Routers

Systems, technical, legal, or institutional, that help individuals or organizations choose between overlapping regulatory or governance frameworks. These tools may allow users to route activity through preferred jurisdictions (e.g. for data, contracts, or research), increasing flexibility, compliance, or autonomy. The concept draws from ideas in network governance, digital sovereignty, and programmable law.

RetroPGF (Retroactive Public Goods Funding)

A funding model where contributors to public goods are rewarded after the value of their work has been demonstrated. Popularized by Optimism, RetroPGF aims to create sustainable incentive structures for open-source software, research, and community infrastructure by decoupling funding from upfront grantmaking.

Public Goods Funding

Mechanisms that support the creation and maintenance of resources that benefit everyone, such as open data, infrastructure, or basic research. These include philanthropic grants, state subsidies, quadratic funding, and newer blockchain-based approaches that aim to improve efficiency, scalability, or alignment with community values.

Proof-of-Personhood

Protocols or mechanisms designed to verify that a digital identity corresponds to a unique human being, without necessarily revealing their real-world identity. Used to prevent Sybil attacks in decentralized systems and to enable one-person-one-vote governance or fair resource allocation. Approaches range from biometric methods to social graph attestations.

Gitcoin Grants

A decentralized funding platform for open-source and public goods projects. It uses quadratic funding to match community donations with pooled resources, amplifying collective decision-making. Gitcoin Grants has supported thousands of projects across web3, climate tech, education, and more.

Federated City-States

A speculative governance model in which multiple autonomous cities form a federation, pooling resources and interoperable governance systems while retaining local sovereignty. Unlike traditional nation-states, these federations may be organized around shared infrastructure, trade, or digital governance protocols rather than geography alone.

Safety-Netted DAO

A decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) that includes built-in protective mechanisms to prevent catastrophic failure or misuse. Safety nets can include pause functions, emergency withdrawal rights, multi-signature controls, or delegated “circuit breaker” authorities to respond to crises.

“Circuit Breaker” Council 

A governance body, often within a DAO or decentralized protocol, empowered to temporarily halt operations, pause smart contracts, or block certain transactions in the event of detected exploits, governance attacks, or systemic risks. Designed to provide rapid response without undermining long-term decentralization.

“Pay for Health Outcomes”

A funding and incentive model proposed by economist Robin Hanson in which healthcare providers or researchers are compensated based on actual improvements in patient outcomes rather than services rendered. Aims to align incentives toward effectiveness and preventive care.

Homomorphic Encryption

A cryptographic technique that allows computation to be performed directly on encrypted data without decrypting it. Useful for privacy-preserving analytics, enabling data sharing and processing across untrusted environments without exposing sensitive information.

Secure Multiparty Computation (MPC)

A cryptographic method that allows multiple parties to jointly compute a function over their inputs while keeping those inputs private. Commonly used for collaborative analytics, private auctions, and shared control over sensitive data or assets.

Sybil Attacks

An exploit in decentralized networks where an attacker creates many fake identities to gain disproportionate influence or access to resources. Countermeasures include proof-of-personhood, stake requirements, and social trust graph analysis.

Self-Sovereign Identity (SSI)

A digital identity model where individuals control their own credentials and decide what information to share, without reliance on centralized identity providers. Often built on blockchain or decentralized identifiers (DIDs), enabling portability and privacy.

Web-of-Trust

A decentralized trust model where identity, reputation, and permissions flow through peer attestations instead of a central authority. Participants issue cryptographic or verifiable credentials for others, enabling access control, Sybil resistance, and reputation across networks. Trade-offs include collusion and privacy leakage; common mitigations are rate limits/decay, stake or slashing, and selective-disclosure proofs.

Ethereum’s Block Validation

The process by which Ethereum nodes verify that a block of transactions is valid according to the network’s consensus rules. Includes checking transaction signatures, smart contract execution results, and compliance with the current protocol rules before adding the block to the blockchain.

Quadratic Funding (QF)

A funding mechanism designed to allocate resources to public goods based on the number of contributors and the size of their contributions. Small contributions from many people are weighted more heavily than large contributions from a few, allowing communities to signal which projects they value most. Matching funds from a central pool amplify community preferences, making QF effective for supporting open-source software, local initiatives, and other collective benefit projects.